AST SpaceMobile: 100% Upside Supported By Japan's $926M Bet
My $180 price target, the ASML rotation I'm still weighing, and the risks nobody's pricing in yet.
AST SpaceMobile ASTS 0.00%↑ just landed a $926 million reason to get excited, and I think this is only the opening chapter of a much bigger story. Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is bankrolling a domestic satellite-to-mobile network, and it picked AST’s local partner to build it.
That is real government capital chasing a technology that could put every unmodified smartphone on the planet inside AST’s coverage map, one country at a time, starting with a market of 124 million people. I already hold a position, and this news is enough for me to add more. Here is the growth case, the risks I am accepting anyway, and the $180 target I am underwriting it with.
I may take $5K of my profit in ASML Holding ASML 0.00%↑ and rotate this into ASTS. Paid subscribers will get the alert first!
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No Idea What ASTS Does? Here’s Context
The Deal
This is the kind of catalyst that changes the growth math. The headline number is ¥150 billion, distributed over three years, earmarked for equipment procurement, satellite launches, and ground control infrastructure. It funds a new entity: a 50/50 joint venture between Rakuten Group and AST SpaceMobile, set to form in 2026, with Rakuten running day-to-day operations while AST supplies the orbital hardware and direct-to-cell technology.
Timeline: Limited service from Rakuten Mobile by the end of 2026, full nationwide coverage targeted for fiscal 2027.
Spectrum: Japan is revising rules to allow direct satellite communication in the 700 MHz band, the same band Rakuten already runs its terrestrial network on. Revisions are slated for September.
The tech: Standard, unmodified smartphones connect straight to AST’s low Earth orbit satellites. No special hardware required on the user end.
